This year's potash market experienced three stages

This year, the potash fertilizer market generally maintained a stable and upward trend. In the first half of the year, the price of potash fertilizer rose by about 200-300 yuan/ton, and in the second half of the year, it also increased by 200 yuan/ton. However, after October, the price of potash fertilizer experienced a major correction, and the price of potash remained generally low after a general reduction of RMB 100/ton. In response to the characteristics of the domestic potash fertilizer market this year and the reasons for this, the reporter interviewed Wang Wei, manager of Potash Fertilizer Division of China Agricultural Group Holdings Co., Ltd. She believes that the price of potash fertilizer is relatively stable compared to other fertilizer varieties, and the overall environment of the fertilizer market is the main reason affecting the market changes of potash fertilizer.

Three phases of the potash market

At the beginning of this year, the domestic imported red potassium price was 2,800 yuan/ton, which rose to 3,050 yuan/ton in early June. In the second half of the year, the red-potassium price has averaged around 3100-3200 yuan/ton, and the highest rose to 3,250 yuan/ton. In one-off adjustment in October, the port red-potassium price has been adjusted to 3000-3100 yuan / ton, and has been stable at this price. Wang Wei analyzed the causes and characteristics of the three phases of potash fertilizer price changes for reporters. She said: “The first half of the year was mainly due to the contradiction between the supply and demand of potash fertilizers and the steady increase in potash prices. In domestic production, the delivery of potash fertilizers in Qinghai in the first half of the year faced severe restrictions and could not guarantee sufficient market supply. On the import side, China’s potash fertilizer import negotiations were only signed. In the contract period of six months, we cannot predict whether it will be imported in the second half of the year. Therefore, the market is more worried about the supply in the second half of the year. The supply and demand of the entire market is in conflict and the price of potash is raised by RMB 200-300/ton.”

In the third quarter, due to the signing of a large contract for the second half of the year by Chinese importers and international potash suppliers at the end of June, the price was increased by US$70/tonne compared with the contract for the first half of the year. The increase in cost stimulated the increase in domestic potash prices. Wang Hao said: "With the active international market, prices have risen to the station price of 530-550 USdollars per ton, prompting the domestic market to be optimistic about the market. Therefore, at this stage, the port price rose slightly by RMB 100/ton. Meanwhile, the salt lake potash price Suddenly rising 250 yuan / ton is also an opportunity to promote this price increase, the potash market is immediately active."

In the fourth quarter, the arrival of border trade suddenly became relatively concentrated, and October itself was the off-season of the domestic potash fertilizer market. Wang Hao analysis: "The dealers do not ship, the market mentality is tense, the price of potash is downgraded. In this process, the domestic diammonium price suddenly jumped, the confidence of the entire fertilizer market was hit; at the same time the external market conditions are not good, The debt crisis in Europe has brought a crisis atmosphere to the global economy, leading to a rapid rise in negative sentiment across the market. Dealers and downstream factories have started to shrink purchases, and those who have goods have also sold at low prices, causing the price of potash to fall in the fourth quarter." She believes that compared with other fertilizer varieties, the price adjustment rate is not large, and the frequency of market changes is also relatively small. The price of phosphate fertilizer has risen by several hundred dollars in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it is lowered by 300-400 yuan at a time. The price adjustment is not very volatile, but because the potash market itself is stable, the adjustment of RMB 100-200/ton has a certain impact on the potash market.

Potash is affected by external factors

Compared with nitrogen fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers, the pricing factors for the potash fertilizer market in China are not complicated. However, due to the relative concentration of domestic production and the transparent import costs, it is also affected by other varieties and international market conditions. In the words of Wang Shuo, “the potash market is now relatively fragile”.

First of all, the total supply of domestic potash has exceeded 50% of the market supply. Therefore, the pricing of domestic potash is very important. At present, the import price of potash has fallen to the lowest cost and it can no longer fall, but the market is still watching. Wang Hao analysis: "Recently, we are more concerned about domestic potash fertilizer, because the price of Salt Lake Potash and Lop Nurn has not actually lowered the quotation, but also maintained a higher quotation in July and August, but the actual transaction price has been reduced. Salt Lake The Federal Reserve's joint sales and the non-pricing of the potash fertilizer have caused the market to be uncertain. Once the quotation is lowered, everyone's guessing mentality will end. Now that it is approaching the production phase of the compound fertilizer plant, everyone is waiting for the salt lake and the Lop Nur to lower the quotation. The price reduction is not The bad news is just that everyone wants to know to what extent it will drop. The market will not deepen price adjustments and will only make clear price adjustments based on the actual transaction price."

Second, as one of the raw materials for compound fertilizers, the trading volume of potash fertilizers is affected to a certain extent by diammonium and other varieties. Wang Xi said: "The supply of potash in the fourth quarter was not very sufficient, and there was not much change. However, after the '11', the price suddenly fell by 100-200 yuan, mainly because of changes in consumer psychology. Related species, If the price of diammonium drops, the start-up rate and sales status of compound fertilizer companies will drop immediately, resulting in the overall stagnation of advance payment for compound fertilizer companies. If they do not receive payments, they will not be willing to buy raw materials and the trading volume of potash fertilizer will shrink.

Again, the transaction and prices in the international market will also affect the confidence of the domestic market. Wang Hao said: "Although the dependence on potash fertilizer imports is declining, the external market's operating environment has a great impact on the domestic market, mainly because the external economic conditions will affect the confidence of the domestic market."