According to news from Shanghai on October 13, China’s copper imports reached its peak in 16 months in September, and iron ore imports hit the highest in 8 months, indicating that fixed asset investment still supports the demand for some commodities.
Although the narrowing trade surplus indicates that overseas demand has shrunk, the growth in imports of metals and bulk commodities still implies that China will continue to maintain its buying habit of dips, and will provide support for commodity prices hit hard by the previous month.
Nicholas Zhu, head of Commodity Research at ANZ Bank in Shanghai, said: "Overall, the September trade figures were more positive, indicating that fixed asset investment is supporting commodity demand."
In the external turmoil environment, China’s commodity demand remains strong, partly because of 10 million sets of affordable housing construction, power grid reconstruction, and investment in less developed central and western regions.
However, analysts warned that trade data may be misinterpreted because of eager delivery before the National Day holiday.
The international-domestic spread is very attractive and may incentivize investors to make up the inventory, which means that actual consumption may be lower than the data show.
Customs data showed that crude oil imports in September rose slightly from the previous month to 4.98 million barrels per day.
September crude oil imports fell by 12.2% from the record level recorded in the same period of last year and was below the 5 million barrels for the fourth consecutive month.
In September, there were 380,526 tons of unforged copper and copper imports, which was an increase of 11.8% from 340,398 tons of the previous month and an increase of 3.3% year-on-year. In September, imports of scrap copper were 420,000 tons, which was higher than the 380,000 tons of last month.
Citi analyst David Thurtell said: "The above data is slightly better than expected. In September, arbitrage trading improved significantly and absolute prices fell sharply, so Chinese consumers took the opportunity to buy, taking into account the price situation here, in October and November imports further increased a little It's not accidental."
The accidental import of iron ore rose by 2.5% from the previous month to 60.57 million tons, which was the largest monthly import since January.
Global copper prices fell by 5.6% in August, tumbled 24% in September, and iron ore prices fell by 5.5% in September.
According to the customs, coal imports from January to September increased by 1.9% year-on-year to around 120 million tons. According to calculations, exports rose to a record 20 million tons in September.
Imports of agricultural products are slightly inferior.
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