High-input and low-efficiency steel industry: the business situation is still not optimistic

High cost is still an important factor restricting the profitability of steel mills, and the price increase of iron ore should not be underestimated. In the first half of the year, China's crude steel production capacity was released at a high speed, and its output was at a historical high. According to the information released by the National Development and Reform Commission, from January to May, the national crude steel output was 290.35 million tons, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year; the steel output was 358.66 million tons, an increase of 12.3%. According to the latest statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the output of crude steel in 76 key enterprises nationwide in the second half of June was 16.9231 million tons, an increase of 3.21% over the previous decade. Based on the fact that there are still three companies that have not reported production, it is estimated that the national crude steel output in the first ten days may reach 20.18 million tons, and the average daily output may exceed 2 million tons for the first time. It is worth noting that the growth rate of crude steel production has slowed down significantly. From January to May, the growth rate of crude steel production in the country slowed down by 15.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the growth rate of steel production also slowed down by 15.2 percentage points year-on-year. This indicates that the market acceptance has begun to decline, especially with the arrival of summer, most of the country enters the hot and rainy season, infrastructure construction and construction are affected, production companies are entering the maintenance phase, and the demand for long products will be Weakened, the steel market will enter the traditional low season. Market monitoring shows that the current national steel social inventories are beginning to rise. On July 1, the national steel social inventory index was 166 points, up by 0.07% from last week. It was changed from last week's decline to up, but still down 2.7% from the previous month and down 6.29% from the same period last year. As the situation of oversupply in the steel market is still outstanding, steel prices fluctuated in the low range in the first half of the year. The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the average domestic steel price index in May was 136.04, an increase of 2.24 points from the previous month and an increase of 13 points year-on-year. Considering that the State Council has clearly proposed to start construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing during the year, the industry generally believes that the cold and heat of the steel market in the second half of the year will directly depend on the progress of the construction of affordable housing. The profitability of steel mills is still not optimistic. From January to April, the national steel industry sales revenue margin was only 2.86%, significantly lower than the current one-year bank interest rate, and far lower than the national industrial enterprise's average profit margin of 6.2%. Careful calculations, the industry's profit level is not as good as the one-year interest rate of the bank, covering China's steel for more than four years. Based on the current market conditions of low steel prices, high raw fuel prices, and tight monetary conditions, the industry generally believes that the operating situation of the national steel industry this year is still not optimistic. High costs are still an important factor that constrains the profitability of steel mills. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the purchase price of industrial producers rose by 10.5% year-on-year, and the price increase of fuel power category expanded by 12%. According to customs statistics, the average landed price of imported iron ore in China was 167.15 US dollars/ton in May, the highest level in history, with a month-on-month increase of 4.18% and a year-on-year increase of 30.06%. In contrast, the CSPI steel composite price index rose by only 12.86% year-on-year. Although the three quarters of iron ore quarterly prices announced by the three major mines are basically the same as the prices in the second quarter, the high-speed release of domestic crude steel production is still in rigid demand for iron ore, so the iron ore price in July has limited space. . On the whole, although the scale of assets in the steel industry is growing and sales revenue is growing at a high rate, the price of raw materials has risen sharply due to the continuous decline in product prices, resulting in long-term low profitability. This typical high-input, low-efficiency extensive operation mode highlights the long-standing industrial concentration of China's steel industry, relatively overcapacity, unreasonable product structure, high energy consumption and high pollution. China's steel industry needs to be accelerated. The pace of transformation and upgrading, and fostering new profit growth points.

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