On December 8, the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that the total import and export value of China's goods trade in the first 11 months of this year was 27.88 trillion yuan, which exceeded the whole of last year and increased by 11.1% over the same period of last year. Among them, exports were 14.92 trillion yuan, up 8.2%; imports were 12.96 trillion yuan, up 14.6%; trade surplus was 1.96 trillion yuan, narrowing 21.1%.
Among them, in terms of renminbi, China’s total import and export value in November was 2.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.1%. Among them, exports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year, the previous value was 20%; imports were 1.26 trillion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year, the previous value was 25.7%; trade surplus was 30.604 billion yuan, up 21.5%.
After the import and export exceeded expectations in October, both imports and exports fell in November, worse than expected. Chen Jianheng, an analyst at CICC, believes that because the growth rate of the previous export is mainly due to the impact of Sino-US tariffs, the rush to export and the strong domestic demand in the United States, but from the obvious decline in orders, the export growth rate will eventually gradually Falling back is not only for the United States, but also for global exports.
Zheshang Securities macroeconomic researcher Sun Fu told the Securities Daily that the export growth rate in November fell sharply, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. The export value in the first month of 2015 and November 2016 was basically $195 billion. In 2017, the external demand continued to improve. In November of that year, the export value rose sharply to 217.4 billion US dollars, an increase of more than 10% over the same period of the previous year. However, under the influence of the continued slowdown of foreign demand and the tariff imposed by Sino-US trade this year, The pressure on exports in the fourth quarter of this year has increased significantly from the previous three quarters. The slowdown in external demand is the main factor affecting the slowdown in export expansion, and the high base is the main reason for the large monthly fluctuations.
Referring to the fall in import data in November, Chen Jianheng said that the sharp decline in imports slightly exceeded expectations, which was related to two factors. First, international oil prices and commodity prices have dropped significantly since October, making import prices fall faster. Second, the sharp fall in domestic industrial product prices in November led to more cautious imports of raw materials.
Sun Fu believes that the sharp decline in import growth is mainly due to the high base of last year. On the other hand, the continued slowdown in domestic demand is an important factor. First, from the perspective of major imported goods, the growth rate of imports of agricultural products, mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products in November turned negative. Second, from the perspective of major importing countries, except for the increase in import growth from Australia, the growth rate of imports from other countries has declined.
Talking about the foreign trade situation next year, Chen Jianheng said that China’s cargo surplus will not expand significantly next year, but in the case of the RMB exchange rate not depreciating, the service deficit will expand, and China’s current account surplus may shrink next year, meaning China’s The difficulty of obtaining profits abroad has continued to increase. Therefore, if the export price cannot be stimulated by the exchange rate depreciation, the economic boost can only rely on domestic demand. It can only lower the domestic interest rate and support the economy by increasing the fiscal deficit and fiscal expenditure. Therefore, domestic interest rates will continue to decline.
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