The machinery industry explores exports in the lag effect of investment

In the January-February sales data, I saw the potential for high-speed growth throughout the year. Following the strong sales in the fourth quarter of 2009, the sales of various products in the construction machinery industry continued to grow at a high rate in the first quarter of 2010, and the growth rate of industrial sales in January-February was 54.43%. March and April of each year is the traditional peak season for industry sales. According to the usual practice, industry sales will naturally rise to the next level in January and February. We judge the industry sales in the third and fourth months and even the first half of this year. The chain is expected to achieve high growth of 30% or more. Leading companies in the industry will achieve sales volume of more than half, and the profit will reach two-thirds of the year. Therefore, in the industry's January opening red sales data, we can basically judge the industry's sustained high growth in the first half of the year, and the high growth of the leading companies' annual profit level has also been clear.
The boom in the industry in the first half of this year was the result of the lag effect of the 4 trillion investment. In response to the once-in-a-century financial crisis, China launched a 4 trillion investment plan at the end of 2008. According to the project cycle, the first quarter of 2009 was the stage for project approval and implementation of funds, and the second quarter entered the pre-level land leveling and relocation, the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, projects have entered the start-up period. In 2009, the sales of construction machinery industry also started from the second quarter, and began to enter high-speed growth in the third quarter, which basically coincided with the progress period of the project of 4 trillion investment projects. Since the third quarter is the rainy season in the southern region, the fourth quarter is the severe winter in the northern region, which will inevitably affect the normal progress of some projects. Therefore, a large number of 4 trillion investment projects will enter the construction phase in the first half of this year. Coupled with the continuation of the construction scale of the newly started projects last year, it will inevitably drive the construction machinery industry to maintain a strong sales trend. In addition, the continued recovery of the domestic economy has also led to rapid recovery of downstream demand such as coal, which has expanded the imagination of the industry's continued high growth.
Export recovery is the highlight of the construction machinery industry in 2010. In 2009, the export value of the industry dropped sharply by 49.16%. From the current signs of export recovery, the industry exports will return to positive growth of 10% or more in 2010. A huge jump from a 49% decline to a 10% increase will be an important clue to our search for industry resilience in the investment lag effect.
Regional economic revitalization and key projects are important support for industry demand. Although the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the country will not have a high growth rate of more than 30% last year, the promotion of urbanization in the central and western regions, including the revitalization plan of Haixi Construction, Guangxi Region, and Minjiang Economic Region, plus the state, A number of key projects in the provinces and municipalities that have started and are about to start construction, we judge that real estate investment and industrial investment are not required in 2010, and China's fixed asset investment will complete the growth level of more than 20%. Therefore, regional economy and key projects It will be an important support for industry demand in 2010.
In short, we have seen high growth potential of 30% or more in the first half of the year in the strong sales data of the first quarter. This high growth support mainly comes from the lagging effect of investment and the recovery of downstream industries such as coal, and exports. Jumping recovery. Although it will face structural adjustment and credit tightening pressure in the second half of the year, regional economic revitalization and key project construction are expected to support the industry to maintain a certain level of growth. We expect the industry growth rate to be about 20% in 2010.  

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