Abstract Affected by the slow growth of the world economy, the global mining industry has slowed down, and indicators such as mineral prices, trade and mining investment have oscillated and shrunk. The era of high profits of mining companies has gradually come to an end, but the overall trend of continuous mining growth is difficult to change. Research on China's land and resources economy...
Affected by the slow growth of the world economy, the global mining development momentum has slowed down, and indicators such as mineral prices, trade and mining investment have oscillated and shrunk, and the era of high profits of mining companies has gradually come to an end, but the overall trend of continuous mining growth is difficult to change. At the 2013 Mineral Resources Situation Analysis Symposium held by the China Institute of Land and Resources Economics, experts at the meeting believed that the mining situation had a certain degree of volatility, which was in line with the development of the entire economic cycle. It is estimated that China's mining market is expected to rebound steadily in 2014.
Mining market generally fell
In 2013, the global economic growth rate declined, the price fluctuation of mineral products and the rapid growth of mining industry caused the cost to rise, and the global mining industry entered the “cold winterâ€.
According to the report “The global metal and mining industry in 2013 is facing a severe situationâ€, in the medium and long term, the global mining industry is still in the third cycle. Over time, the impact of huge liquidity funds on the mining industry will gradually weaken, and the global economy will go out of the haze in 2013~2014. However, the current economy in many parts of the world is still relatively fragile, and demand for commodities such as steel will gradually weaken.
According to reports, the global exploration market was weak in 2013, and China's exploration investment declined. In the first half of 2013, China's non-oil and gas solid mineral exploration investment was 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. With the decline in domestic geological exploration investment, the number of exploration projects and drilling workloads implemented nationwide have also decreased accordingly.
In fact, in 2013, China's mining industry investment growth rate was lower than the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society. In 2012, the growth rate of investment in the mining industry in the country slowed down sharply. In 2013, this low growth rate continued to be maintained. From January to October 2013, the cumulative investment in the national mining industry was 7.8% lower than the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society.
In 2013, the production of international and domestic crude oil, iron ore and ten non-ferrous metals increased. China's imports of copper, iron and coal have increased, and the dependence on crude oil has declined. In addition to a slight increase in crude oil prices, base metal prices and mining stock markets generally fell.
The analysis believes that China's mining companies have entered a high-cost era. In the past five years, the cost growth rate of China's mining enterprises has increased substantially, and the increase in the cost of ferrous metal mining and mining owners has been the most obvious. The data shows that in August 2013, compared with August 2008, the cost increased by 240.7%, mainly due to the increase in factor costs, including wage costs, housing costs, financing costs, raw materials and fuel costs.
Mining is in the adjustment stage
2013 is a special year for the world economy to undergo profound adjustment and accelerate recovery. Among them, the growth rate of developed economies has improved, but the foundation for recovery is not strong. Emerging market economies have experienced greater recovery, but growth momentum has slowed. China's economy is stable and stable, but the situation of energy and other important mineral resources is complex and changeable, and the development environment is not optimistic.
However, due to the impact of the macroeconomic environment, it is inevitable that the current mineral market will have a certain degree of volatility correction. However, driven by the economic development of emerging market countries, the overall situation of mining growth is difficult to change. In particular, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee proposed that several reforms, such as increasing the degree of marketization and accelerating the process of urbanization, will help promote the development of the mineral resources market in an optimistic direction.
However, based on historical issues, in the near future and in the next few years, China's mining industry is still facing the pressure of de-capacity, destocking and de-financing. With the rise in the prices of artificial wages, environmental remediation pressures, financing, raw materials and fuels, the operating costs of mining companies are constantly increasing, leading to the gradual entry of mining companies into the era of high costs, and constantly squeeze the profit margins of mining companies.
At present, the sustainable development of mining industry with social responsibility and environmental protection as the main content has become the mainstream, and the construction of ecological civilization has become an inherent requirement. The analysis believes that the exploration and development cost of mineral resources continues to rise, which is inevitable. The mining high-profit era of capital madness has gradually lost its charm. In the future, the competitive advantage of mining development will increasingly rely on management innovation and the integration of capital and technical equipment. "drive.
The mining industry pointed out that the current global mining industry is in the adjustment stage. In the future, with the gradual recovery of the world economy, especially after major structural adjustments and adjustments by major economies such as the United States, Europe and China, economic growth will be healthier and more sustainable. At the same time, emerging economies such as India and Africa are expected to become new economic growth points, and a new round of mining boom is coming.
Prospects for mining development
In fact, 2013 is an important year for the complex and volatile global energy and other important mineral resources and market adjustment. Although the world economy seems to be unable to get out of trouble for the time being, people are still eager to become a turning point in the global economy in 2014.
From the long-term trend, China's economy is still in a period of adjustment, or "second round of adjustment-type growth period", will not form a new upward trend, cyclical, staged adjustments are still not in place, China's economy still has downward pressure .
However, in 2014, China will still coexist with opportunities and challenges. There are still many uncertainties in economic development. In particular, the international economic environment is still full of variables. It is not only testing China's economy, but also testing China's mining industry.
Experts suggest that in the current situation of the world's macroeconomic situation continues to slump, the price of bulk minerals fluctuates, and the profits of major mining companies fall sharply, mining companies must do two things: first, strengthen internal management, and second, realize capital. Integration with technical equipment, through the dual drive of management and technical equipment and capital integration, can gain competitive advantage in the market. At the same time, China's mining investment must achieve three combinations in the future: first, the combination of exploration capability and mineral scale development; second, the combination of scale investment and industrial chain deepening; and third, the combination of mineral resource utilization intensity and industrial technology innovation.
In 2014, China will accelerate the strategic adjustment of the economic structure and promote reforms in a number of important areas. Among them, the adjustment structure has become the economic focus, and urbanization will become a new impetus for economic growth, and China's economy will move forward in the non-stop reform. With the economic stabilization, it is expected that China's mining market is expected to rebound steadily in 2014, especially in the second half of 2014, and it is full of confidence in the market prospects in 2015.
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