Abstract The latest report released by China Iron and Steel Association on March 18 showed that the daily output of crude steel of member companies was 1.767 million tons in the first ten days of March, down by 3.3% from the previous month. The national daily output was estimated to be 2.085 million tons, up 2.5% from the previous month. In this regard, experts analyze the reporter, rough...
The latest report released by the China Iron and Steel Association on March 18 showed that the daily output of crude steel of member companies in the first half of March was 1.767 million tons, down by 3.3% from the previous month. The national daily output was estimated at 2.085 million tons, up 2.5% from the previous month. In this regard, experts analyzed the reporter, the rise in crude steel daily output is still attributed to the steel mills still have profits and the pursuit of production scale. Even for long-term producers with slight losses, in order to ensure the turnover of funds and even the survival of enterprises, they are afraid to cut production.
However, analysts also pointed out that compared with the previous two months, the current steel mills are increasing in both supply and demand and cost. The China Steel Association’s ten-day report also showed that the steel stocks of key enterprises at the end of March were 12.845 million tons, a slight increase from the 12.65 million tons at the end of February. The steel mills are still at a relatively high level in the past year, indicating the finished steel mills. Stock pressure is high.
It is worth noting that after the Spring Festival, domestic steel spot market prices and rebar futures prices have continued to fall for nearly a month; futures prices have fallen more than 550 yuan, hot coil prices have fallen more than 400 yuan, and plate prices have fallen by 300 yuan. Construction steel fell by 200-250 yuan, and most of the varieties have reached a relatively low level.
However, last Friday morning, driven by the stock market rally, rebar futures took the opportunity to rebound quickly. The rebar futures rebounded more than 140 yuan. Driven by futures and stock market, the profiles, strips and spirals of Tangshan area on Friday The shipments of other products have improved significantly. The prices of steel billets in some steel mills have risen slightly; the turnover of spiral lines in Beijing and Tianjin has improved, some large households have closed the warehouse, and a small number of merchants have started to increase their prices; Shanghai, Tianjin, Anhui and other hot rolling The leading city shipments have also improved, and the offer has risen slightly.
For the day's market, analysts believe that on the one hand, driven by the long-term market, the business is bullish, and the goods are waiting to rise; on the other hand, because the current market price has been seriously upside down, steel traders have lost money. For the trend of the steel market in the later period, analysts said that it is difficult to be optimistic. "The rapid growth of crude steel output and high inventory is still the main crux of the market trend, and the recovery of demand remains to be seen."
The insiders also believe that although the sharp rise in futures prices will prompt some of the demand for the spot market to be suppressed during the price decline in the early stage, the spot price of various domestic steel products may rebound rapidly in the short term, and the overall range may exceed one hundred. However, in the case of large inventory pressures in various markets and steel mills producing record highs, it is difficult to form a continuous rise after the price rebound, and the follow-up market may still be repeated. However, the rebound in the price will reverse the market mentality to a certain extent. The low point of the price before the rebound may also be the low point in March and April.
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