Reuters commentary (September 23)

LME – Copper futures are expected to continue upside after closing record highs

Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed slightly lower on Friday, having reached record highs this week as the fund’s aggressive purchase of commodities such as oil benefited metals as Hurricane Rita approached the US coast.

Three-month copper fell by $28 to 3,725 per ton in late afternoon composite trading. After hitting a record high of $3,795, the market is expected to continue to rise. Compared to last week's low of $3,493, copper is now nearly 10% higher.

One trader said that at the end of the week, some profit-taking sell-offs occurred at the end of the week. However, copper is expected to climb 3,800, or even 4,000. The question is whether it will fall back before further attacks.

Spot copper once reached US$3,978 per ton, which is historically higher for LME copper.

U.S. Economic Outlook Worries About Copper Prices

Market watchers, worried about the US economy, will suppress copper prices in the future. Ruhr, a global resource investment company, pointed out that the outlook is contradictory. I think the US economy will weaken next year and the dollar will fall. A weaker dollar will push up metal prices, but the weak economy is not conducive to metal prices. The price of copper may reach 4,000 in the short term, but some longer-term prices will ease. The skyrocketing energy prices will support aluminum prices in the medium term, but in the longer term, smelters will invest in more energy-efficient production methods.

Three-month aluminum fell by US$4 to 1,858 per tonne; three-month nickel rose by US$150 to 13,650. The three-month period fell by $7 to 1,411; three-month lead rose by $3 to 920.

After Hurricane Rita’s fear of Katrina, it once again caused the destruction of flood prevention facilities in New Orleans. About half of the LME’s zinc stocks are stored in the city. The current situation of these metals is not yet clear.

A LME spokesperson said that, like the last time, Rita made it more difficult to travel. Once the situation improves, we will go to New Orleans to check out the warehouse.

COMEX --- Copper Falls Lower After Receiving New Heights Affected by Hurricane Rita Strength Reduction

Copper fell on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) on Friday. Traders said that after the copper reached record highs for the fourth consecutive trading day, the market suffered a quick profit-taking settlement.

As Hurricane Rita's intensity weakened to three levels, investors sold positions previously set up due to Rita’s possible damage, leading to a decline in copper.

COMEX indicator December copper fell 1.15 cents to 1.6985 US dollars per pound, but the contract rose to a new high of 1.7280 at the opening.

Spot September copper also closed down 1.15 cents to 1.7985, a record high of 1.824.

The daily trading volume was estimated at 13,000, and the volume on Thursday was 11,079.

Alaron Trading analysts also linked the fall in copper futures to the reversal of the energy market.

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