Potash demand further declines

As the downstream compound fertilizer plant was stopped and overhauled, the potash demand further decreased. In the first half of the year, the amount of confirmed shipping contracts was basically completed. Port transactions were depressed, and traders were very willing to ship. There was still a possibility that the prices of the shipping contracts might fall.

According to customs statistics, in May China imported 596,000 tons of potassium chloride, which was a drop from 95,000 tons in April and 5% lower than the 627,000 tons in the same period of last year. From January to May, the total amount of imported potash was 3.3 million tons, an increase of 14% from 2.95 million tons in the same period of last year. Among them, imports from Russia through railroad border trade amounted to 977 thousand tons, which was basically the same as the same period of last year; the seaborne import volume was 2.3 million tons.

APC completed the first half of the potash fertilizer export contract for the Chinese market at the end of June, and BPC is currently basically completing the amount of contract confirmation, and the quantity will be shipped according to market conditions. Affected by the sluggish demand in the domestic market, the current stock in Hong Kong is relatively high, about 1.3 million tons. The outbound prices dropped again, and the quotation of Russia's red potassium mainstreams in various regions was priced at 2,350 to 2,450 yuan (t price, the same below), which was approximately 383 to 396 US dollars, which was a drop of 30 to 50 yuan (5 to 8 US dollars) from two weeks ago. The current price has been lower than the first half of the $400 landed contract price.

The price of potash continued to decline, and the price of seaborne was under pressure. At present, many port traders do not offer prices, and downstream demand depends on each single case.

The arrival of border trade continued, and the volume reached around 100,000 tons in June, which is basically the same as in May. It is reported that the arrival in July will increase slightly. At present, Russia's red-potholes quotation is 2,150 yuan, and Russian red pellets are quoted at 2,330-2,350 yuan, which is lower than the previous period. The current price competition of border trade, ports and domestic potash fertilizers has become fierce, and both are struggling to carve up the market demand that is not much downstream.

Potassium is slightly better than potassium chloride. Although in the off-season, the downstream demand is not high, but the current company inventory is limited, and some manufacturers stop overhaul also affected the market supply. In terms of imports, the import volume of potassium in May** was less than 8,000 tons, a decrease of 55.6% from the same period of last year and a decrease of 50% from April. From January to May ** potassium imports were approximately 55,000 tons, down 15% from the 65,000 tons in the same period of last year. ** Potassium companies are currently saying that although the transaction is limited but the sales pressure is not great, stocks should be increased appropriately to guarantee the supply of tenders in the future. This further proves that the balance between supply and demand is the basis for maintaining market price stability.

Overall, the potash market slump will continue for some time. Although price cuts have failed to drive downstream transactions, companies and traders are still willing to squeeze profits and even reverse shipments if there is demand. Future trends will depend on supply and demand conditions.