Steel coal to capacity will be officially implemented
In the recent period, the relevant members of the Inter-Ministerial Joint Meeting of the Iron and Steel Industry to Resolve the Overcapacity and the Development of the Depletion Development Work together, actively act, step up the work of the coal industry to resolve excess capacity, issue special supporting policy documents, and closely contact the relevant regions to strengthen Comprehensive coordination and overall balance have achieved phased results.
Shandong geology and minerals reorganization and reorganization of "empty city plan"
After the lifting of the relevant equity ban, Bao Delui, Shandong Dili, Shandong Huayuan, Qi Zhibang and Beijing Zhengrun have successively carried out the reduction of the holdings. As early as 2014, the semi-annual report showed that the Shandong mines had experienced a sharp decline in performance. Restrictive measures were taken for the performance compensation to be triggered, resulting in the fact that the above-mentioned shareholders held the unrestricted shares almost completely reduced, resulting in performance compensation could not be fulfilled.
The three major coal groups actively cut production and reduced production capacity
The Corporate Social Responsibility Report released by Shenhua Group yesterday showed that under the current severe overcapacity situation, in 2014 and 2015, the company actively reduced the coal production capacity by 95 million tons. By the end of 2015, the Group had reached 47 ultra-low emission coal-fired generating units, and implemented 164 energy-saving and environmental protection key projects throughout the year.
Domestic coke export volume increased in March
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in March 2016, China exported 1,122,200 tons of coke, an increase of 241,400 tons, an increase of 27.41%. In March, the average export price of coke was US$121.55/ton, an increase of US$13.02/tonne, an increase of 11.99%.
Steel price callback coking coal coke May gains or will continue
According to analyst Guan Dali, affected by the price increase of key coal enterprises in Shanxi and Hebei on May 11, the coking coal market in recent days may usher in a new wave of price increases, which should be around 30-50 yuan/ton. Although the price of steel has dropped, the heat of the coal coke market has not decreased. Most coking plants still maintain a high operating rate, and there is no sign of any contraction in the coal supply end. Although the downstream steel mills have increased their resistance to price increases due to the fall in steel prices and macro expectations, production continues, production of raw materials and downstream capacity of the terminal are not reduced, and the upward trend of coal prices will continue.
Black system skyrocketing and deviating from functional positioning
One of the most direct reasons is that industries are extremely sensitive to price due to their huge capacity advantages, and the slight fluctuations in product prices can cause huge disturbances to the key financial indicators of related companies. When the price is low and there is even a downward trend, the huge capacity advantage will immediately become a disadvantage. The more the production, the more the loss, the more the loss will be overcapacity.
Fujian price rise
According to the price monitoring of the Fujian Provincial Price Bureau, as the domestic commodity futures prices continued to strengthen, in April, the prices of industrial production materials in our province showed an increase or decrease. The prices of 55 industrial production materials monitored were 35 liters, 13 drops and 7 levels. Among them, steel prices have risen markedly, cement prices continue to fall, and chemical raw materials, glass products, and timber prices have risen.
Comment: With the further recovery of the domestic economy and the gradual effective effect of de-capacity and de-stocking measures, steel supply is expected to decrease, and domestic commodity futures are still in a bull market, and the market is likely to continue to rise.
Steel price recovery does not hinder production capacity
On May 12th, the National Development and Reform Commission held a scheduled press conference. In response to the question of whether price changes will affect the completion of the task of de-capacity, Zhao Chenxi, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that from the understanding of the situation, the production capacity of the resumption of production is a compliance capacity, not a phase-out scope, and most of the enterprises resume production and resume production. Change and adjust the normal behavior of production and operation.
Comment: The industry in China has a relatively high proportion of enterprises, and the price elasticity of supply is in an asymmetric state. In the price recovery cycle, once the enterprise profits are restored, the enterprise has the demand to increase the operating rate. In the process of de-capacity in the traditional manufacturing industry, we should comprehensively use various means, pay attention to all issues such as economic development and personnel resettlement, and lay the foundation for the solid development of the industry.
Next week's steel price trend warning: the pessimistic decline in mentality is difficult to change
Recently, the pace of steel mills' resumption of production has accelerated, while the demand for replenishment of terminals has slowed down. The inventory of steel in the country has risen and fallen, and the pressure on market supply has gradually increased. Coupled with the authority's judgment on the economic "L" type, it means that the policy focus or the demand side to the supply side will have a certain impact on the market mentality. The short-term trend of weaker domestic steel prices will remain difficult to change. Based on this, the market will maintain a negative evaluation next week – a green warning.
The decline in steel prices has increased the steady growth of raw materials.
The price of steel billet and scrap in the domestic market fell sharply this week, with the highest drop of about 15%. The market demand improved slightly on Thursday, and the price of some areas rebounded slightly. The price of imported ore also fell first and then rose, not much change from last weekend. The wait-and-see mood is strong; the coal coke market is gradually slowing down, and the spot is still tight.
Development and Reform Commission: There is no fundamental change in the supply and demand relationship in the steel market
The relevant regions and coal industry's implementation plan for the resolution of excess capacity have been completed, and the overall arrangements for the “13th Five-Year Plan†period have been clarified, and the annual capacity reduction or exit plan has been drawn up. According to the requirements, the relevant provincial people's governments have also completed the signing of the responsibility book for the coal industry to resolve the excess capacity to achieve the development goals. After the signing of the target responsibility book and the implementation plan are filed as required, the work of resolving the excess capacity will be fully entered into the formal implementation stage.
The black wall and the building materials "price war" will start again
In view of the downward price adjustment of Shagang's mid-price policy of 400 yuan/ton in East China's leading steel mill, it is generally higher than market expectations, and the market price in Fujian Province and the settlement price of steel mills are still upside down. In addition, the steel mills force the traders to sell their targets, and the market pressure is higher. Large, it is expected that the ex-factory price of Sangang Steel Plant will be further lowered on the 16th. It is expected to drop by RMB 160/ton, and the settlement price may be 2480 thread, 2510 wire, and 2630 coil.
The transaction was slightly lighter and the plate price was narrowly consolidating
Yesterday, the plate index rose 0.12% from the previous trading day. As of the 12th, the average price of the board in the 23 major markets nationwide was narrowly consolidating. The average price of 8mm plate was 8 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, of which Shenyang rose 50 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm plate was up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, of which Nanchang was up 70 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm low alloy sheets rose by RMB 7/ton from the previous trading day, of which Shanghai fell by RMB 30/ton.
Comment: In the case that the billet price has risen again and again, the traders have stabilized and stopped falling, and the offer is basically stable.
Hot rolling prices, weak consolidation, market wait-and-see mood
On the 12th, hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide rose and fell, with an average national price of 2,798 yuan / ton. The largest drop was 90 yuan / ton, the largest increase of 50 yuan / ton. On the 12th, the price rose first and then fell. As the electronic disk fell back, the market transactions saw a significant stagnation in the afternoon, and the wait-and-see mood was thick. Merchants are obviously in the market and expect prices to continue to adjust downwards today.
Comment: The price rebound in the past two days is a kind of repair to the previous plunge market. The current weak market is established. Under the circumstance of no obvious demand release and favorable stimulus, there is no incentive for prices to continue to strengthen. Therefore, you should not blindly bottom out. In terms of inventory statistics, this week's inventory was around 110,000 tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons from last week. It is expected that the short-term local hot volume will operate in a turbulent situation.
Business mentality pessimistic cold rolling overall average price fell
Yesterday, the cold plate index rose by 0.06% from the previous trading day. As of the 12th, the average price of cold rolling in 24 major cities nationwide fell as follows. The average price of 0.5mm cold rolled coils fell by RMB 15/ton from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai market price rose by RMB 20/ton. The average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coils fell by RMB 2/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of Nanjing market fell by RMB 30/ton.
Comment: In general, the overall market has weakened slightly. Given the pessimistic attitude of merchants on short-term demand, the price of dark-selling shipments is obviously obvious. It is expected that cold-rolled spot will continue to be weak.
Insufficient turnover of building materials market consolidation
On the 12th, the spot market price of building materials rebounded slightly. Shanghai, Jinan, Hefei, Nanchang, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Chongqing, Guiyang, Xi'an market prices rose 10 yuan -50 yuan / ton. The market prices in Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang and Urumqi fell by RMB 20-90/ton. The average price of HRB400 (20MM) in the national market is now 2,631 yuan / ton, up 4 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.
Comment: Although the current market is stabilizing, the overall situation is expected to be significantly improved due to the lack of fundamental demand for downstream demand. On the whole, the current market is in a volatile operating situation, and the recent price may be mainly stable.
Analysis of industry recovery factors and development prospects in 2016
In terms of demand, the total planned investment amount of newly started projects in fixed assets investment in January-February this year increased by 41.1% year-on-year, an increase of 42.9 percentage points over the same period of last year. At the same time, the total amount of real estate development investment completed increased by 3% year-on-year. Higher than market expectations. This provides a basis for demand for the recent rebound in market prices.
Pre-judgment of various steel products next week (5.16-5.20)
Comprehensive spot performance and technical analysis, although the short-term rebound of the snail may be limited, the magnitude and duration are limited. The pressure on the 60-day moving average near 2190 is strong. The short-term breakthrough is extremely difficult, and the overall downward trend has not changed. The 2100 integer mark is difficult. Support has been too long, or the decline near 2000 points has slowed down.
The fall in steel prices is difficult to prevent steel companies from resuming enthusiasm
The volume of the blast furnace was 39,426 cubic meters, which was 1610 cubic meters less than that of the previous week. The operating rate of the blast furnaces of 100 small and medium-sized enterprises was 88.28%, which was basically the same as last week.
Under the "L" type economic trend, the market will fluctuate for a long time.
Although most of the domestic waste markets have rebounded, some markets have rebounded by 100 yuan/ton, but the information forecast that this rebound is difficult to sustain, and the possibility of falling market prices next week is more likely.
Will mainstream steel companies be able to pay for their prices?
Since April 25, the steel price index has fallen from 3,070 points to 2,600 points, a drop of 15%. However, while steel prices are rapidly falling, raw material prices have not fallen simultaneously. In the same period, the iron ore price index of the institution fell by only 1.72%; the spot price of coke not only did not fall, but rose against the trend, from 680 yuan / ton on April 25 to the current 880 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 30% . In this context, steel mill profits have fallen rapidly.
The daily rise of 1000 has fallen out of the day and the right way to go!
The overall market pessimism of stainless steel may account for the majority. Although the price of nickel has rebounded, it has little effect on the stainless steel market. The main reason is that the market turnover is light, the inventory pressure is rising, and the steel traders are not expected to rise. Therefore, it is expected that the stainless steel market will be weak in the later period, and it is not possible to rule out the possibility of further decline.
The National Development and Reform Commission is so describing the steel market!
The steel market has given everyone a lesson. Due to the artificial speculation in the spot and futures markets, steel prices have risen sharply since April. Zhao Chenxi, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, gave the market a reassurance. He explained at the press conference that as the market supply and demand relationship has not changed fundamentally, overcapacity still exists and steel prices will not continue to rise rapidly.
Impetuous society, struggling steel market!
Although the overall spot market price has shown a downward trend in the near future, the three major steel mills still have a rising futures price policy, making traders more uncertain about the later trend; it is also noted that although the market has slowed down the pace, some resources There are even signs of a small rebound, but most merchants say that shipments are still the main purpose in the short term.
It is a little hard to raise steel prices! How to overcome this hurdle?
Excessive speculation caused the supervision to be heavy, and the frenzy of the black futures in the inner market quickly cooled down. Last week, coke fell 11.11%, coking coal fell 10.21%, and rebar fell 9.46%, both of which were the biggest weekly decline since they started trading. Analysts said that the recent resumption of steel mills has accelerated, the national steel market inventories have risen and fallen, and the market supply pressure has increased. Therefore, the trend of short-term domestic steel prices is still difficult to change.
Steel billet dropped 50! Steel market rose to fall?
On the 12th, the domestic steel spot market prices went up and down, and the futures prices also rushed back and down. The business was not optimistic about the market trend of the market. In terms of steel mills, although the overall spot market price has shown a downward trend in the near future, the three major steel mills still have a rising futures price policy, making traders more uncertain about the later trend.
Industry first time in 15 months, still need to be vigilant for a large number of resumption of production
After 15 months of continuous losses, the industry finally ushered in its first profit. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from authoritative sources that large and medium-sized enterprises included in the steel association statistics achieved a profit of 2.745 billion yuan in the whole industry in March, compared with a loss of 6.72 billion yuan in January, and the overall operation of the industry showed a significant improvement.
Hegang will reduce the crude steel production capacity by 5.02 million tons this year and next.
The basic attributes of state-owned enterprises determine that they must play the role of “first mover†in implementing national industrial policies. A few days ago, Hebei Group decided to phase out all the backward production capacity in the early stage. In the next two years, it will reduce the ironmaking capacity by 2.6 million tons and the steelmaking capacity by 5.02 million tons.
Comment: If Hegang wants to further strengthen its main business, further innovate its development mode and promote industrial transformation. Focusing on the deep processing and utilization of derivative resources in the industrial chain, cultivating and developing non-steel industries such as new materials, new energy, and production service industries; actively participating in global industrial resource allocation and expanding overseas business.
March large and medium-sized steel mill profits of 2.745 billion yuan
In March 2016, the industry finally ended its 15 consecutive months of losses, ushered in its first profit, and the overall operation of the industry showed a marked improvement. At the same time, the accumulated loss in the first quarter still reached 15.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.26%. The situation of industry difficulties has not changed.
Comment: The rapid rise in steel prices in China this year has not been sustainable. The report pointed out that the reason for the rise in steel prices was mainly due to the seasonal recovery of infrastructure, real estate industry and speculation in the futures market. Fitch believes that as steel prices rebound to a stage high and some idle production capacity resumes, the total steel supply will continue to grow, but at the same time market demand will not continue to increase substantially. This will put the price under greater pressure in the near future.
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