In May, most of the rubber and plastic products continued the trend of the first two months: continue to decline. The characteristics of the presentation: rubber down the line, some general plastics turned red; and the average decline continued to narrow, from the index can also confirm: the rubber and plastics industry index fell from 740 in early May to 732 at the end of the month, a decline of only 8 points (March decline) 105 points, a drop of 40 points in April); another feature is that rubber is still falling stronger than plastic. On the one hand, due to the downturn in the commodity market and the weak end of the cost of crude oil; more importantly, the demand side lacks good, low demand and high stocks play each other, and the market destocking process is still not over.
May rubber is difficult to break through high inventory and low demand
Rubber continued its decline last month, and the decline continued to deepen this month. The rubber index fell from 742 at the beginning of the month to 692 at the end of the month, a drop of 50 points, butadiene rubber (-14.23%), nitrile rubber (-13.31%), Natural rubber (-9.42%) fell significantly.
synthetic rubber:
In May, synthetic rubber fell sharply. On the one hand, it was affected by petrochemical price adjustment: in May, the total reduction of styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber petrochemicals was around 2,000 yuan/ton. The large downward adjustment severely suppressed the enthusiasm of traders. The air atmosphere is dignified. In addition, the upstream cost is increasing, especially the slump of butadiene (-20.12%) drags down the downstream synthetic rubber market. The main reason is the deepening of the contradiction between supply and demand, the supply continues to rise, but the inventory is difficult to come down. The rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone have entered the inventory accumulation period since the beginning of November 2016, and have continued to rise for nearly 7 months, from a low of 83,300 tons. Rapid increase of 184,600 tons to 267,800 tons in May 2017, an increase of 221.88%, and by mid-May, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory became the second highest point in the past two and a half years since mid-July 2014, and the highest point in 2016 In mid-February, 278,100 tons was only 10,300 tons lower. In terms of demand, the tire industry continued to be sluggish, and the profit of the tire industry continued to shrink, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates. According to statistics, in mid-May, the operating rate of all tires in Shandong tire enterprises was only 55.03%, down 11.14% from the previous month. . The final high inventory level dragged down the low level and lowered the demand for rubber.
natural rubber:
In May, natural rubber continued the market last month, and this month's decline was -9.42%. First of all, the natural rubber base was still bearish this month, and the futures market repeatedly went out of the market, as the current spot market traders generally priced with futures orders. The spot market was severely hit by the futures market. The main reason is that the current supply is extremely surplus. Although the market has been reducing the amount of natural rubber imports to alleviate the surge in social stocks, the effect is very limited. Specifically, the natural rubber imports in April 2017 were 462,500 tons, compared with March. Significantly down 13.18%, although the Qingdao Bonded Zone's rubber inventory growth rate slowed down significantly in May, but the total volume still increased. As of mid-May 2017, Qingdao Bonded Zone rubber inventories continued to rise to 267,800 tons, compared with 24.98 in early May. Ten thousand tons increased by 18,000 tons, an increase of 7.2%. Among them, natural rubber was 206,800 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons, an increase of 8.61%. The root cause of this strange phenomenon is the lack of domestic demand, and the continued decline in the operating rate of downstream tire companies has put heavy pressure on the market.
May plastics rise and fall, the weak pattern of mutual growth does not change
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General purpose plastic:
General-purpose plastics still perform weakly, and the market has experienced ups and downs, and the rise and fall are generally within 3%. PVC and polyolefins ended the two-month downtrend and rebounded this month, but the increase was limited, PVC (4.58%), LLDPE (3.64%) and PP (1.10%). The rest of the products were mainly weak, and PS fell slightly, at -3.68%.
Specifically, first of all, there is no big change in the overall external environment of general-purpose plastics. The continued weakness of crude oil still suppresses the downstream market; upstream products such as ethylene (-11.20%) and styrene (-1.45%) still have the following behaviors at this cost. The negative trend is difficult to change, which is also an important reason why the general plastics market is difficult to rebound sharply. PVC and polyolefins can be said to be highlights this month. The reason why the market is generally depressed is the redness. On the one hand, the equipment maintenance is increasing. According to statistics, the loss of polyethylene due to the repair device in May is about Up to 180,000 tons, nearly doubled in April. In addition, the market destocking effect has achieved initial results. Petrochemical inventories have declined slightly, generally falling below 1 million tons. Port stocks have not continued to rise, and the volume of goods arrived in Hong Kong in May. Compared with April, the bidding advantage of imported goods has weakened, and it is difficult to stimulate the enthusiasm of downstream stocking. The port inventory digest is still slow. In May, the inventory at the end of April was about 400,000 tons. In general, the fundamental reason for the general plastics market not to break out of the weak situation is the weak downstream demand, especially in the domestic demand. The signs of the off-season in May are particularly obvious. According to statistics, the operating rate of downstream factories is basically the same as that in April, of which PE The average operating rate of packaging film production enterprises is 45%-50%; the average operating rate of knitted product manufacturers is about 50%; the average operating rate of agricultural film manufacturers is 30%-40%; the average operating rate of hollow product manufacturers is about 45%; The operating rate of pipe manufacturers is 40%-45%; the average operating rate of injection molding products manufacturers is 45%-50%, it can be seen that the start-up of downstream enterprises is basically less than half.
Engineering plastics:
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In May, except for the rise of PET (4.42%) in domestic engineering plastic products, most of the products still fell mainly, while PA66 (-7.91%) and PA6 (-2.48%) fell significantly.
Specifically, the engineering plastics market continued its trend in March and April this month. Most of the products went down. On the one hand, over-the-counter overdraft was driven by 1-2 months. On the other hand, the cost side continued to fall, caprolactam (-3.51% ), adipic acid (-24.62%), PTA (-0.85%) and other upstream products continue to fall, the abrupt change of adipic acid directly leads to the downstream PA66 passive decline, and then demand, this month gradually showed oversupply And the extreme situation of weak demand, after several months of high market, the market has a rational callback demand, the downstream is difficult to accept high prices, to some extent, inhibited the price to continue to rise, more importantly, the demand is weak, the transaction is small The main and firm deals are still limited. In particular, PA66 has a large decline. Although the listing price of the manufacturers is firm, the traders are pessimistic, generally letting the goods out, the market price is accelerating, the price is upside down, the downstream customers are slowing down, the overall inventory pressure is increasing, and the market is shrinking. The price is bound to adjust downward.
Market outlook
In May, the rubber and plastics market entered the traditional off-season. Most of the products went down. Although the average decline was narrower than that in March and April, there is no sign of stabilization. The market is still in the adjustment market. How about in June? Specifically:
rubber:
For the rubber price trend in May, from the supply side, the market price cuts to inventory, but the effect is not obvious, the social inventory is still high, the market will still be in high pressure in June, and the demand is even worse, the tires start. The rate is difficult to rise sharply in the near future. The continuous decline in the sales of heavy trucks in China will also drag down the further recovery of the tire industry. Considering that the current price decline is too large, there is a buffer in the market. It is expected that the decline will slow further in June, and the rubber is expected to fall. 5% up and down.
General purpose plastic:
In May, the destocking effect of the market was not very significant, and it will continue in the later period. In June, the market was mainly based on short-selling: on the one hand, in terms of equipment, most of the centralized maintenance devices were restarted in June, and the impact of equipment maintenance in June decreased. Especially polyolefin. From the demand side, the overall market demand remained weak in June. The downstream factories only maintained the demand for the main demand. There was no bright spot for the growth of the industry. It is expected that the price will fall within 3%.
Engineering plastics:
It is predicted that there will still be downside space in the engineering plastics market in June. Most products will not perform well due to the adipic acid, caprolactam and other raw materials markets, and the manufacturers have high inventory, and it is more likely that the manufacturers will continue to reduce their movements later. It is expected that the weak trend of the market will be basically established. It is expected that the products will generally continue to weaken, with a range of 3-5%.
On the whole, the current market adjustment of the downturn market is basically established, and from the perspective of fundamentals and supply and demand, there is still no signal to stop the recovery. In June, rubber and plastic may remain weaker. The possibility of surface emptying is large, and low oil prices are still an important factor that constrains the recovery of costs. More importantly, the possibility of a change in supply and demand in the short term is small. The overall effect of destocking in the market in May is not satisfactory. In June, it will continue to fight against inventory, especially in the rubber field, which is the hardest hit area of ​​heavy stocks. Therefore, it is expected Rubber and plastic products will continue to fall in June. Considering that it has been falling for three consecutive months, and the decline has gradually slowed down, it is estimated that the market decline will further narrow in June. It is expected that there will still be 10-20 rubber and plastics indices. The drop space of the point will run to the range of 715-725.
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