Iran: Freezing Spring

At the beginning of 2012, which was swept by the cold, the freezing point of the world is still in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the December 31 of the previous year, the United States issued a new round of sanctions against Iran. On January 23, 2012, the EU foreign ministers’ meeting decided to prohibit member countries from importing crude oil and refined oil from Iran. The existing contract can be implemented until July 1. day. In response, the Iranian parliament also plans to openly debate and review the proposal to stop exporting oil to the EU in the near future. On January 27th, Iran’s First Vice President Rahimimi even warned that if Western countries impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, Iran will strait the Hormuz Strait.

United States: Sparing no effort to sanction Iran Iran is the world’s major oil producer. In 2010, the production was 424.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 5.2% of the world; the export volume was 2.44 million barrels per day, which accounted for 4.6% of the world, ranking first in the world. Four. Its main export destination is Asia. In 2010, it accounted for more than 60% of total exports.

The United States has spared no effort in sanctioning Iran. The National Defense Budget Act, which was promulgated on December 31, 2011, covers all financial institutions that have business dealings with the Central Bank of Iran. If the latter helps companies pay for imports of Iranian crude oil, they will be boycotted by the US financial system. The bill also stipulates that if a country significantly reduces its business dealings with Iran, its domestic enterprises can be "exempted" from the United States; and when it is in the interest of the United States or when it is necessary to stabilize the crude oil market, President Obama can order the US financial system to temporarily suspend sanctions.

On January 30, 2012, a number of major U.S. lawmakers said that they should take harsher measures against Iran. The Senate Banking Committee, the party’s Tim Johnson and Republican leader Richard Shelby of the committee said that the committee will submit the bill in early February.

According to the act, the United States will impose sanctions on any company in the world that has helped Iran acquire, produce or transport*. Any person who supplies materials and technologies such as tear gas, eraser, and monitoring equipment to Iran will be refused by the United States and the assets will be frozen. For Iranian students who are studying energy related majors in the United States, if they think that they will return to Iran for energy or nuclear work, the visa officer can apply for a visa refusal.

The bill also requires that companies listed in the United States must report all Iranian-related businesses to the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, sanctions against Iran’s Guards will also be strengthened, including prohibiting its members from entering the United States, freezing their assets in the United States, and sanctioning “anyone who physically assists the Iranian Guard”.

In response, Li Shaoxian, deputy dean of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations and an expert on the Middle East issue, said: "The United States and Iran are very respectful. Everyone knows that no one can lose the American market, or even less want to lose the American market. If the United States participates, The House and the Senate passed the bill, so the noose around Iran's neck will be even more strained and will have a major impact on Iran.” EU: Compared with the EU, the EU is hesitant to impose sanctions on Iran.

The EU foreign ministers’ meeting in early December 2011 discussed the embargo on Iranian oil. Due to opposition from Greece, Spain and other countries, no agreement was reached at that time. From January to January 2012, the EU’s sanctions against Iraq were frequent and finally the EU foreign ministers’ meeting decided on January 23 to prohibit member countries from importing crude oil and refined oil from Iran; however, the resolution also stated that the existing contract can be implemented until July. 1st.

“The United States has not imported a single drop of oil from Iran, but Iran’s oil is not as important to the EU as a whole.” Guan Qingyou, an expert on energy issues, told Shanghai State-owned Assets. He pointed out that in 2010, Europe imported 597 million tons of oil. Of which only 22.4 million tons came from Iran, less than 4% of the total; compared to its largest source of energy is the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries, importing 295 million tons of oil each year.

"But at the same time, the amount of oil imported from Iran by Iran is relatively concentrated in Italy, Spain and other countries. For these specific countries, shutting down the Iranian oil market in the short term will have a great impact," Guan Qingyou said. The important reason why the EU is indecisive.

What makes the European Union even more tempting is that the countries most affected by the debt crisis in Europe are precisely relying on Iran’s oil to the highest degree. According to monthly statistics of the European Commission, among the nearly 450,000 barrels of crude oil Iran exports to European countries on a daily basis, Spain, Greece, and Italy accounted for 14.6%, 14%, and 13.1% of their total imports, respectively.

For European countries in deep crisis, this potential risk can be said to be unacceptable. Xia Yishan, director of the China Energy Strategy Research Center of the China Institute of International Studies, points out that on the one hand, Iran’s debt repayment to European companies is partly due to the oil trade; on the other hand, Europe needs to buy oil from other countries at a high price and it will increase its debt. In particular, countries such as Greece, which are deeply in debt crisis and depend on Iranian oil, are no doubt under even greater pressure.

Whereas, where did he see the inconsistency within Europe? In response, the Iranian Parliament also plans to openly debate and review the proposal to stop exporting oil to the EU in the near future. On January 27th, Iran’s First Vice President Rahimimi even warned that if Western countries impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, Iran will strait the Hormuz Strait.

However, most analysts believe that in the face of a new round of sanctions and escalation, this extreme phenomenon is unlikely to occur, but the international oil prices caused by the sanctions will fluctuate greatly.

Deng Yong, an analyst at Haitong Securities’ petrochemical industry, said that the affected European countries will find it difficult to find countries with alternative oil exports in the short term. According to the OPEC countries’ remaining oil production capacity, they are mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Iran. Saudi crude oil production is already quite large. A substantial increase in production will inevitably take some time. Libya’s surplus production capacity is not a day or two due to the destruction of war. . "If the oil embargo is imposed on Iran, the international oil price will rise again in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand." Orient Securities Zhao Chen also said that if the sanctions against Iraq are upgraded and full trade embargoes are implemented, there will be 1.5 million barrels per day. The oil supply gap is basically equivalent to the impact of the Libya case in 2011 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In the short term, the maximum increase in international oil prices was 18% and 13%. Based on this, it can be predicted that the sanctions on Iranian upgrades may cause the international oil price to rise by 10%-20% in the short term, that is, a platform of 120-130 US dollars per barrel.

The outside world does not believe that Iran will make extreme acts of the Strait of Hormuz, because for Iran, this is no doubt suicidal economically. It is important to know that half of Iran’s government revenue depends on oil exports, and the Strait is equal to its own path. Second, politically, it will also be condemned by various countries and further isolated by the international community. In the military, it is almost impossible to resist the destruction of the powerful US military force.

For the United States, it does not want to take extreme action at present. Li Tongliang, a macro analyst at Haitong Securities, said: "After all, the United States has just withdrawn its troops from Iraq. The resumption of military conflicts will intensify the fiscal deficit, and the domestic economic problems will be in raging, and the anti-war sentiment will be strong." He believes that the United States is more concerned with economic sanctions and political development. Isolate Iran's way to solve the problem.

China should make preparations for Guan Qingyou as early as possible, saying that China imports more than 20 million tons of crude oil from Iran each year, accounting for more than 10% of the total imports. The actual import in 2011 was 27.87 million tons, accounting for 11.03%.

Prior to this, there had been ** opinion that the European and U.S. sanctions against Iraq would be good for China and would receive more Iranian export energy and lower energy prices. However, from the actual situation, things are not so simple.

Former Chinese ambassador to Iran, Hua Liming, once stated that “the above issues should be considered comprehensively from a long-term perspective. Once the Strait of Hormuz is affected or affected, oil transportation will be implicated in the entire Gulf region, which accounts for 40% of imported crude oil. For China in the region, the crackdown will be very large.” Kong Qingying, an analyst at China Gold, said that the differences between China and Iraq in terms of crude oil payment terms are still pending. Iran’s crude oil imports in January this year will be significantly reduced, and it is expected that this The reduction will continue. The gap of 285,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil per day will be filled through other import sources. For example, China plans to import 2 million barrels of British North Sea Forties crude oil, and Sinopec’s premium on crude oil imports from Russia also hit a record high in February. "This precisely reflects the potential of China to actively seek alternatives to Iranian crude oil."

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