Domestic and foreign markets are bullish on coking coal prices

According to the fundamentals of the coal industry, the government's regulation of thermal coal prices does not change the upward trend of coal prices, and the probability of coking coal prices increases again. The price increase window is expected to be in May-May.

From the perspective of the macroeconomic policy environment, the central bank’s interest rate increase again reflects the urgency of policy tightening, and it also aims to curb excessive credit supply at the beginning of the year and adjust real estate prices. The room for raising interest rates depends mainly on the trend of inflation. If the CPI peaks in the first half of the year, the central bank may increase interest rates by 1-2 times in the future, and the possibility of concentration in the first half is greatest.

As for the macroeconomic performance, the PMI value in January of this year was slightly higher than the same period of 2006, indicating that the manufacturing industry was in line with the normal level in 2006, and the overall operation of the economy was stable. Although there may be a downturn, the risk of a deeper correction will not be significant. . It is unlikely that coal demand will slow down significantly in the future, and the deeper correction of coal prices is also a small probability event. However, whether the macroeconomic future has clearly declined and how much the magnitude of the fall is still needed to be further followed up.

The growth rate of downstream industry output rebounded, and coal demand remained high. The growth rate of coal production has not yet increased significantly. After the coal price continued to rise, it entered a stable stage and the supply and demand balance. Flooding in Australia has pushed up coal prices in the international market. The next 3-4 months will be an important driving force for the rise in domestic coal prices. It is optimistic about the price increase of coking coal again, and the probability of price increases during May-May is relatively large.