To a certain extent, the Chinese economy is suffering from “expected chaosâ€.
On the one hand, many economists have different views on whether the economy can “Vâ€-type rebound; on the other hand, many economists have heated debates about whether the policy will turn.
Reflected in the stock market, after the listed company's slightly exceeded expectations of the transcripts on the 31st, the Shanghai stock index fell 6.7% on the day, the biggest one-day drop in 15 months.
In the second half of the year, what is the economic fundamentals, can we support the stock market rise?
At present, most research institutions believe that by the fourth quarter of this year, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) will be more than 8% year-on-year (compared with the same period last year). Among them, many internationally renowned brokers, including Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities, have predicted values ​​of more than 9%.
In fact, in recent months, industrial production, fixed investment, power consumption and other data are all picking up. Sun Mingchun, chief economist of Nomura Securities Greater China, also predicted on the 31st that the purchasing managers' index (PMI), which was scheduled to be released on September 1, will rise from 53.3% in July to 54.5%.
However, it is worth noting that the most important factor in the reports of various organizations that prompted the institutions to judge the economy to continue to go is not the government's stimulus plan, but the export situation that has obviously improved since June.
Due to the recent recovery of the “green shoot†of the US economy and the continued improvement in US consumer confidence, many experts including Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Greater China, have moved out of the “exceeding expectations†growth. The most important "carriage" that pulls the Chinese economy will be to promote economic growth in the second half of this year.
On the other hand, many brokerages, including Guohai Securities, have issued reports to remind them of industry investment opportunities that benefit from export recovery.
This is not difficult to understand. Once the export is revived, the employment situation will improve, and it will also have an important impact on consumption and investment.
For the other two "carriage" - investment and consumption, the consensus of most organizations is: Considering the signs of policy fine-tuning, it is expected that the two will remain stable in the second half of the year. In other words, these two factors will not drag the economy, but will not contribute more.
It is worth noting that the significance of predicting the improvement of exports is not only here, but for the decision-making level, this is also an important opportunity to obtain a time window to start the “conditioning†after the emergency measures.
To put it simply, under the premise that exports may be able to re-support the economy and investment projects have been stable in the first half of the year, the decision-making level can make greater determination to plan economic transformation and curb the capital market bubble.
Although the idea is very clear and everything is moving in the direction of health, there is a clear concern in the market: How long can export be?
One factor that bears the brunt is that whether exports can be improved is entirely determined by the needs of foreign markets, and the judgments of foreign countries on the economic situation are very different.
Not to mention the well-known scholars including Nobel Prize winner Stiglitz have been awakened to beware of "green buds" and "wild grass." In the Fed's meeting of interest rates, it is only cautious to say "level out" rather than "bottom out."
On the 31st, it was reported that the current "labor shortage" is just a shortage of labor caused by a large number of migrant workers returning home, not a strong rebound in exports. In addition, even if the export rebounds, and the data of previous years is not the same.
"I feel that if exports really fall sharply again at the end of the year, then the government is likely to re-adjust policies in time, restart investment to "guarantee eight" and guarantee employment." A scholar who asked not to be named said on the 31st, so far, The government’s measures should still be “returnable and retreatableâ€.
On the one hand, many economists have different views on whether the economy can “Vâ€-type rebound; on the other hand, many economists have heated debates about whether the policy will turn.
Reflected in the stock market, after the listed company's slightly exceeded expectations of the transcripts on the 31st, the Shanghai stock index fell 6.7% on the day, the biggest one-day drop in 15 months.
In the second half of the year, what is the economic fundamentals, can we support the stock market rise?
At present, most research institutions believe that by the fourth quarter of this year, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) will be more than 8% year-on-year (compared with the same period last year). Among them, many internationally renowned brokers, including Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities, have predicted values ​​of more than 9%.
In fact, in recent months, industrial production, fixed investment, power consumption and other data are all picking up. Sun Mingchun, chief economist of Nomura Securities Greater China, also predicted on the 31st that the purchasing managers' index (PMI), which was scheduled to be released on September 1, will rise from 53.3% in July to 54.5%.
However, it is worth noting that the most important factor in the reports of various organizations that prompted the institutions to judge the economy to continue to go is not the government's stimulus plan, but the export situation that has obviously improved since June.
Due to the recent recovery of the “green shoot†of the US economy and the continued improvement in US consumer confidence, many experts including Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Greater China, have moved out of the “exceeding expectations†growth. The most important "carriage" that pulls the Chinese economy will be to promote economic growth in the second half of this year.
On the other hand, many brokerages, including Guohai Securities, have issued reports to remind them of industry investment opportunities that benefit from export recovery.
This is not difficult to understand. Once the export is revived, the employment situation will improve, and it will also have an important impact on consumption and investment.
For the other two "carriage" - investment and consumption, the consensus of most organizations is: Considering the signs of policy fine-tuning, it is expected that the two will remain stable in the second half of the year. In other words, these two factors will not drag the economy, but will not contribute more.
It is worth noting that the significance of predicting the improvement of exports is not only here, but for the decision-making level, this is also an important opportunity to obtain a time window to start the “conditioning†after the emergency measures.
To put it simply, under the premise that exports may be able to re-support the economy and investment projects have been stable in the first half of the year, the decision-making level can make greater determination to plan economic transformation and curb the capital market bubble.
Although the idea is very clear and everything is moving in the direction of health, there is a clear concern in the market: How long can export be?
One factor that bears the brunt is that whether exports can be improved is entirely determined by the needs of foreign markets, and the judgments of foreign countries on the economic situation are very different.
Not to mention the well-known scholars including Nobel Prize winner Stiglitz have been awakened to beware of "green buds" and "wild grass." In the Fed's meeting of interest rates, it is only cautious to say "level out" rather than "bottom out."
On the 31st, it was reported that the current "labor shortage" is just a shortage of labor caused by a large number of migrant workers returning home, not a strong rebound in exports. In addition, even if the export rebounds, and the data of previous years is not the same.
"I feel that if exports really fall sharply again at the end of the year, then the government is likely to re-adjust policies in time, restart investment to "guarantee eight" and guarantee employment." A scholar who asked not to be named said on the 31st, so far, The government’s measures should still be “returnable and retreatableâ€.
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